Three regions’ votes, black turnout will be early vote indicators

By Jeff E. Schapiro
Media General News Service

Published: November 4, 2008

Virginia today could complete its transformation from reliable Republican redoubt to competitive presidential battleground.

Signs of this historic shift—should it occur—may be found in the outer suburbs of Washington, in defense-rich Hampton Roads, and in the state’s heavily black big cities.

Only twice in 60 years has Virginia backed a Democrat for the White House—Presidents Harry Truman in 1948 and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Accelerating suburbanization, generational shifts and the growing ranks of newcomers more interested in solutions than partisanship have fueled a Democratic comeback since 2001.

That convinced both parties, even before the presidential field was firm, that Virginia would be in play this year.

Frequent visits by Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain and their running mates confirmed Virginia’s new status as a toss-up.

Where the candidates showed up and the voters they targeted were important clues to how they planned to win Virginia’s 13 electoral votes.

Prince William and Loudoun counties: On the edges of Washington, these suburbs once were powerfully Republican. Democrats have been winning in both since 2001.

Obama opened his general election campaign June 5 with a stop in Prince William, and he campaigned there last night. McCain campaigned in the county Oct. 18. Obama’s running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., held a rally there in September.

Obama, Biden and Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, have held rallies in Loudoun.

Should Obama carry both counties, then it probably will be a good night for him. If McCain carries one, it could be a long night.

Hampton Roads: The region’s hefty black vote is keeping Obama competitive there. So, too, is a narrow slice of the region’s military vote—for example, families angry over multiple deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, McCain is pressing his natural advantage as a war hero with the state’s 800,000-plus veterans and the more than 200,000 active-duty military and civilian defense workers.

Through surrogates such as retiring Sen. John W. Warner, R-Va., former chairman of the Armed Services Committee, McCain warns that an Obama victory could cost Virginia billions of dollars in defense spending.

The countryside: The rural south and west are the reddest pockets of Virginia, favoring Republicans in part because they are considered stronger on gun rights and other cultural issues.

McCain needs big wins in rural Virginia.

Obama believes he can peel away part of that vote because of the collapse of the textile and furniture industries. And that’s why he appeared in such cities as Bristol, Martinsville and Roanoke.

But Obama will have to dig deeply into the white rural vote to capitalize fully on his presumed advantages in the suburbs and cities.

African-Americans: The black vote will be better than superlative for Obama—not unlike the massive turnout in 1989 for L. Douglas Wilder, the nation’s first elected black governor.

Watch for lines at polls in urban areas and rural communities with black majorities or substantial pluralities.

One sign that the African-American vote will be strong for Obama is double-digit increases in new voters in some cities. They tend to be reflexively Democratic because of a reliable black vote.