Goode-Weed race reminiscent of ‘04 battle

By Blair Goldstein
News Advance Staff Writer
Published: November 4, 2006

The congressional race between Republican Rep. Virgil Goode and Democratic candidate Al Weed has an air of déjà vu.

In the pair’s second consecutive matchup, many of the issues are the same - the war in Iraq, same-sex marriage, illegal immigration - and Goode once again leads Weed in the money race.

According to recent polls, another Goode victory on Tuesday appears likely as well.

“I haven’t really seen any sort of difference (in the races),” said Stephen Bragaw, associate professor of government at Sweet Briar College.

In 2004, Goode was re-elected for his fifth term with 64 percent of the vote to Weed’s 36 percent.

According to a SurveyUSA Poll released Thursday, 61 percent of voters currently support Goode and 35 percent support Weed. The gap between the candidates has grown since an October poll, which showed Goode leading Weed by 16 percentage points.

Weed has raised more money in this time around, but Goode once again has the financial advantage.

According to the nonprofit Center for Responsive Politics, Goode has raised about $807,000 this campaign compared to about $818,000 in 2004. Weed has raised about $545,000, compared to about $483,000 in 2004.

The differences in this year’s matchup are in the details: more negativity, more competition, increased support for Democrats nationwide and small shifts in political positions.

The most noticeable position shifts surround the war in Iraq, a major issue in both the 2004 and 2006 races.

Weed has opposed the war since its beginning and spoke in favor of withdrawing troops during 2004 debates.

Two years later, the former Green Beret and Army reservist said he is increasingly concerned about the treatment of veterans and the strain on reserve units.

“If anything, since 2004 my opposition has become stronger and broader as there are more things going wrong with this war,” said Weed.

He said he would not support an ongoing occupation in Iraq unless Bush presents a realistic plan for peace and homecoming.

Goode continues to support the war, but has refined his support for President Bush’s vision.

In a debate in Charlottesville weeks before the 2004 election, Goode praised Bush’s leadership in Iraq, saying: “We need a strong leader in the United States at this time, someone with courage.”

Goode explained his differences with the president last week. He said he supports a partition in Iraq to separate the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, an idea he said President Bush has not embraced.

“The Bush administration didn’t want to hear it,” said Goode. “They want basically a democracy in Iraq where everyone will get along and I don’t know if that’s achievable.”

The competition for the Fifth District seat has increased this year and the tone of the race has taken a negative turn. Weed faced an opponent in the Democratic primary. He said the challenge, while a drain on fundraising, increased his name recognition around the district.

“People said, ‘Al’s serious, he wants this, he wants to work for it, and he’s willing to work for it,’” said Weed. “All of that added up to the kind of increase in name recognition.”

In the main race, a third competitor entered the fray. Independent challenger Joseph Oddo will appear on the ballot. According to the recent SurveyUSA poll, 2 percent of likely voters support Oddo.

While Oddo was included in most of the debates and forums the most heated barbs were exchanged between Goode and Weed.

The pair has traded attacks, through press releases, interviews and television ads.

Despite the fight, University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato said he does not expect the national mood that is favoring Democrats to sway the Fifth District’s support for conservative candidates such as Goode.

“It’s a Democratic year overall, so it will be a surprise if Weed doesn’t get a higher percentage,” said Sabato. “But it will also be a gigantic shock if he wins.”