Ward 1 contest expected to get highest voter turnout

By Alicia Petska

Published: May 5, 2008

Turnout in today’s City Council election is expected to be better than usual for a local ward race, according to Lynchburg registrar Pat Bower.

On Monday, Bower predicted as much as 30 percent of the electorate in Ward I would make its way to the polls. “If we’re lucky,” she said.

The other three wards will likely see lower numbers, she speculated, “maybe on the order of 20 percent” and perhaps even lower in Ward II, which has historically low turnout.

Today’s election is only for the four ward seats on council. The other three council seats are elected at-large and will be up for a vote in two years.

Each year, Bower and other Lynchburg election officials attempt to forecast turnout levels in order to determine how many ballots should be printed. In the past, voter participation in a City Council contest has ranged from as little as 4 percent to as much as 30 percent or more.

This year, officials expect Ward I, which has a three-way race, will draw the most interest.

“It seems like there’s more excitement in that race, just from watching the newspaper and listening to people talk,” Bower said.

Traditionally, ward-specific elections fail to generate the same interest as their at-large counterparts. In the past 10 years, Lynchburg’s at-large council elections have averaged 27 percent voter turnout. Ward elections, by comparison, averaged 17 percent during the same period.

At the same time, the city is enjoying significant growth in overall voter registration, with record numbers being seen today, Bower said.

In 1998, Lynchburg had a total registration roll of 34,548. In recent months, that figure has swelled to 40,453.

This is the first time election officials recall registration surpassing the 40,000 mark. Bower said a surge seen between last November and this February pushed the city past that barrier. She attributed the uptick to the presidential elections.

Polls will be open today from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Year | Type of Election | Total Voters | Turnout

1998 | At-large | 11,300 | 33%

2000 | Ward | 4,063 | 11%

2002 | At-large | 19,321 | 20%

2004 | Ward | 5,078 | 14%

2006 | At-large | 30,659 | 28%

Click here for more 2008 Lynchburg City Council elections coverage