Many folksy forecasts pass meteorological muster

By NEIL JOHNSON
MEDIA GENERAL NEWS SERVICE
Published: November 4, 2008

Before double Doppler, computer-crafted weather forecasting and satellites with names like TRMM and QuikSCAT, there was folklore.

“People needed something to predict the weather, and they started looking around,“ said Mare-Anne Jarvelo, senior research editor with The Old Farmer’s Almanac.

One little ditty describes the hurricane season we’re in now:

“June too soon. July stand by. August look out you must. September remember. October all over.“

So just how accurate are these folksy forecasts? We ran some by Ben Nelson, Florida’s state meteorologist.

The hurricane ditty?

Nelson: Partly true.

It comes from the West Indies and the eastern Caribbean, where the season peaks in August and September, and October usually marks the end of serious threats from hurricanes.

“Of course,“ Nelson noted, “they’re about to be hit by a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean.“

“Oaks produce a large acorn crop before a harsh winter.“

Nelson: “I don’t believe that at all.“

“A ring around the moon means rain is coming.“

Nelson: “There’s some truth to that.“

A ring around the moon generally indicates clouds are growing heavier, meaning rain could be on the way.

“A mackerel sky and mare’s tails will make a ship use lower sails.“

Nelson: “That could be true.“

Mackerel sky is a term for altocumulus clouds, and mare’s tails are cirrus clouds. Both can indicate a change in the weather. Sailing ships lower sails when a storm is coming.

“If onions have a thick skin, it means a bad winter is coming.“

Nelson: “That sounds like a nice fairy tale.“

“Dew on the grass means it will be a clear day.“

Nelson: “Normally for dew you need a clear sky and light winds. Usually those are associated with fair weather.“

“When a wood door or drawer sticks, it means rain is coming.“

Nelson: “There’s some validity to that. It could easily be a byproduct of lots of humidity.“

“When bubbles in a coffee cup hold together, fair weather is coming. When they separate, foul weather is coming.“

Nelson: “That’s probably derived from air pressure.“

Bubbles clumping could mean high pressure and separating could mean low pressure. High pressure usually indicates good weather, low pressure means bad weather.

“Smoke rising in a straight column means fair weather. If smoke scatters, bad weather is coming.“

Nelson: “That could be tied to dispersion.“

Long columns of smoke mean calm wind, which can translate into good weather. Wind, which could foretell bad weather, would scatter smoke.

“Red sky at night, sailors delight. Red sky at morning, sailors take warning.“

Nelson: “There’s some truth in that.“

In Florida, though, it might be more of an indication of how much rain fell during the summer wet season since moisture in the air is a factor in the color of clouds.

“If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow on Groundhog Day, there will be six more weeks of winter weather.“

Nelson: “I don’t believe that for a second.“

Also, because Feb. 2 is in the middle winter, the season always has another six weeks to go anyway.