Outlook for holiday shopping dims

BY BOB STUART
Media General News Service
Published: November 20, 2008

The trends for the Christmas economy of 2008 are not looking bright according to a national polling organization.

Gallup of Princeton, N.J. said in a Wednesday story and poll that the average Christmas spending this year will drop to $616, $250 less than a year ago and the lowest in that organization’s tracking of Christmas shopping during the past decade.

Nearly half of those surveyed by Gallup said they would spend less on Christmas gifts this year than last.

Gallup Editor-In-Chief Frank Newport said in a story that the only winners during the Christmas retail season could be discount stores such as Wal-Mart, because shoppers will lower their expectations..

Gallup says the projections are not surprising given that 60 percent of Americans now rate the U.S. economy as “poor.“

One Shenandoah Valley economic expert is taking a wait and see attitude.

Greater Augusta Regional Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Ben Carter said he expects area consumers to be cautious in their Christmas spending, but does not necessarily think that means they will spend less.

“I don’t know what will happen, whether that means they will spend as much or less,‘’ Carter said.

Carter said media reports about the state of the economy have dampened the outlook for many consumers.

One of the ripple effects of less Christmas spending at retailers is seasonal employment.

Virginia Employment Commission Chief Economist Bill Metzger expects a slight drop in the 30,000 Virginia jobs annually added for the holidays.

And with the state’s unemployment up to 4.2 percent from about 3 percent a year ago, Metzger said there will be more competition for those holiday jobs, taken mostly by high school and college students.

Metzger said there is at least one bright spot in the Christmas shopping picture: gas.

“The price of gas is half of what it was during the summer,‘’ he said. “During the summer, when it was $4 a gallon the cost was siphoning off from a lot of other purchases.“

And Metzger said since national retail sales were down in October, it is reasonable to expect discounts on sales earlier this Christmas season than during the past.

“The holiday merchandise was ordered in August and September and a lot is already in stores,‘’ he said. “Retailers don’t want to carry the merchandise over into January.“

Bob Stuart is a staff writer for The News Virginian in Waynesboro, Va.